Second Choice Voters, County Unit System May Give Edwards Advantage in Iowa

A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. But when second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported
other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was
the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology
InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable
win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today,
the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%

Clinton: 34%

Obama:
25%

Edwards Win Straw Poll

At a recent meeting, the Muscogee County Democratic Party took an informal straw poll in the presidential race, and the winner was John Edwards. Why does that matter? According to the AJC, Muscogee County Democrats have an uncanny ability to pick winners. Here's what Frank Myers had to say about his support for Sen. Edwards:

Frank Myers, a Columbus attorney, said he's backing Edwards for a simple reason."Of the top-tier candidates, he has the best chance to win the general election," said Myers, 47. "Who is the Republicans' best candidate? It's Hillary Clinton." Those sentiments — the need to pick a candidate who can defeat the Republican nominee and that Clinton is too polarizing — were common at the social. "Hillary has great credentials," said Ross Marshall, 61, an advertising sales executive with Davis Broadcasting. "[But] she will energize the opposition like no one could." Marshall, too, is supporting Edwards.

Edwards Grabs Lead in Iowa!

In what Matt Towery says could signal an Edwards surprise on January 3rd, a new poll from Insider Advantage, shows that John Edwards has grabbed the lead in Iowa. Though the race remains very close, Edwards also has a significant lead among second choice voters-including significantly leading Hillary Clinton among female second choice voters.

Edward is peaking at the right time. Read more from Tom Baxter and Southern Political Report.

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll.

Guest Post: Frigid Iowa Gets Hot

From Michael Miller regarding his recent trip to Iowa in support of John Edwards. I'm headed there for the caucus, and I'm asking for Cuddle Duds for Christmas!


Dear Friends,

By now you have all heard that Clinton's leads in Iowa and New Hampshire have evaporated and her campaign is deteriorating into mudslinging hysteria. There's word that now that they've thrown dirt at Obama, John Edwards is the next target of this desperate campaign. Yesterday on NPR in Johnston, Iowa after the debate, Clinton argued that she is the most electable Democrat because she's "the only one with nothing hidden in my past." Stay tuned...

I want to share some reflections on the Iowa campaign. As many of you know, I have spent a good deal of time campaigning for John Edwards in Iowa and will be there during the final stretch leading up to the caucuses on January 3rd. On the ground in Iowa there has been an unmistakable momentum growing for the Edwards campaign while the national media has been infatuated with the "glamour" stories of Hillary & Bill and Barrack & Oprah. John Edwards has been persuasively making his case that in order for real change to occur in Washington, DC we need a fighter who will take on the greedy and entrenched corporate interests which have co-opted our government - and that John Edwards has fought that fight, and consistently won that fight, for his entire life.

Doing well in Iowa is about “retail” politics – making direct personal contact with the people – and a highly organized team. During our most recent trip to Iowa, Cindy and I worked with a terrific group of volunteers from Illinois, Indiana, California, North Carolina, New York, Washington, and Georgia. We got to see the campaign operation in full gear and got to know some of the truly gifted and dedicated young people who are working 20 hours a day for victory. Our operation is very well-organized, our team understands the dynamics of the caucus process and has an excellent final stretch and caucus-night strategy.

While we had heard a lot about the brutal mid-west winter, nothing could have fully prepared us for the reality of the bone-chilling sub-freezing temperatures, ice and snow storms and incredible winds. But while it is frigid in Iowa now, the politics is getting very hot. Among our activities during a four-day period in Iowa, we took a harrowing ride in an horrid ice-storm to an Edwards event at Drake University (where, incredibly, more than 150 people turned out!), made 1,180 calls to likely caucus-goers inviting them to various events with Senator Edwards, cheered outside a presidential debate (called "visibility" work) in sub-freezing weather and then attended the debate, dined with Senator Edwards and discussed the campaign’s strategy for the last few weeks of the campaign in Iowa, knocked on 835 doors of likely caucus-goers in Ames (45 miles north of Des Moines) and Des Moines in blisteringly cold and windy conditions and urged them to caucus for Edwards, attended an early morning interview with Edwards on the Early Show and attended a forum of precinct captains and other supporters with Madeleine Stowe (Last of the Mohicans, The General’s Daughter, We Were Soldiers) and Jean Smart (Designing Women, 24, Frasier, I Heart Huckabees, Samantha Who?). And that was only part of our four day schedule!

The final stretch is really going to be something - hold on for a wild ride! And if you're coming to Iowa, bring you’re your thermals!

Michael

If We Want to Win, the Clear Choice is John Edwards

New polling today again shows that John Edwards is the Democrat who stands the best chance of actually winning the presidency in 2008. Even as Huckabee slipped into the lead in Georgia, John Edwards bests him nationally by 25 points, a bigger margin than either of the other front runners. CNN summarizes one of my key reasons for supporting Edwards:

"Edwards is the only Democrat who beats all four Republicans, and McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats," Holland said. "Some might argue this shows that they are the most electable candidates in their respective parties."

No kidding. Democrats need to be asking a serious question: do we want to win the presidency in 2008, or would we rather be crying in a ballroom like we were in 2004-our hopes pinned on Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan? I don't know about you, but I don't care to repeat that experience. We have three supreme court justices on the line, plus Iraq, Iran, health care and the list goes on. We need choose the candidate who has the best chance of actually WINNING, and that's John Edwards-the candidate Republicans fear the most. Watch this clip:



This is why I have been working for Edwards. It's why I'm packing my suitcase and heading to Iowa for the caucus. This is why-I want to WIN next November.

Edwards: "The Best of What This Country Has to Offer"

SOUTHWEST IOWA NEWSPAPER: EDWARDS “REPRESENTS THE BEST OF WHAT THIS COUNTRY HAS TO OFFER”

Endorsement Praises Edwards for “Championing the cause of the little guy” and Highlights Edwards’ Rural Support

Des Moines, Iowa – Senator John Edwards today received the endorsement of Valley News Today, a daily newspaper in Shenandoah, Iowa. The paper, which covers a rural southwestern Iowa community, does not typically endorse presidential candidates and has not done so in recent presidential primaries. The paper’s endorsement reflects Edwards’ appeal to rural America and his commitment to making sure Iowans in every part of the state know where he stands on the important issues facing our country. Edwards is the only candidate to visit and take questions from Iowans in all 99 counties twice, and has announced the public support of more than 1,000 rural Iowans.“As the only Democratic candidate with rural roots, Edwards knows first hand about the daily trials and tribulations of the working poor,” reads the endorsement. “As a result of his upbringing, he has by far the most specific, most progressive and most far-reaching ideas to improve our nation.”
The endorsement comes as Edwards continues to gain momentum in Iowa. Earlier this week, Edwards received the endorsement of Congressman Bruce Braley, the most senior Iowa Democrat to endorse a candidate. Last month, Edwards became the first candidate to announce steering committees in all 99 counties, reaffirming the growing strength of his statewide organization.

The full text of the Valley News Today endorsement is below:

Edwards has clear vision for America

Valley News Today, December 7, 2007

There are many reasons why we’re supporting John Edwards as the Democratic nominee for President – not the least of which is his proven ability to unite voters from a variety of cultural and socioeconomic backgrounds.Unlike his Democratic challengers, Edwards’ support doesn’t come from a single demographic, but rather from all demographics.Simply put, he represents the best of what this country has to offer.If given the opportunity, we believe the former senator from North Carolina will work tirelessly to fight for the little guy as he has done for the past 30 years.

As the only Democratic candidate with rural roots, Edwards knows first hand about the daily trials and tribulations of the working poor. As a result of his upbringing, he has by far the most specific, most progressive and most far-reaching ideas to improve our nation.Born the son of a blue collar mill worker, Edwards learned about the importance of hard work and perseverance from his parents, who taught their son to roll up his sleeves and fight for the things he believed in.That tenacity helped push him to become the first member of his family to attend college – eventually earning a law degree from the University of North Carolina.

For more than two decades, Edwards dedicated his career to representing the little guy. He earned a name for himself as a lawyer by his willingness to stand up against – and ultimately defeat – the powerful insurance industry and their armies of lawyers.His passionate advocacy for people like the folks who worked in the mill with his father earned him respect and recognition across the country.Twenty years later, he’s still championing the cause of the little guy by being an outspoken advocate against poverty.In the 2004 campaign, Edwards brought the plight of the working poor to the front of our American conscience by speaking out about the “two Americas” – one for people at the top who have everything they need and one for everybody else who struggle to get by.Edwards’ powerful message continues to resonate with voters all across America – particularly in Iowa where he has spent the past four years crisscrossing the state to bring his message to each of our 99 counties.As a result of his time spent here, we believe he has developed a true understanding of what matters most to us.Among other things, he has vowed to create a true universal health care system that covers everyone in America, brings down costs, and creates more choices and security.And if Congress won’t cooperate, he has promised to do everything within his power to take away their own government-provided health care. John Edwards is a family man who, if elected, will be the first president since John F. Kennedy to bring young children with him to the White House.And we think that’s a good thing. Each morning when he rises, he will have his children, Jack and Emma, to remind him how important each decision he makes really is to our future generations.

Edwards isn’t afraid to speak out against the political machine that has corrupted our system for years and has pledged as a candidate to refuse contributions from Washington lobbyists – a personal decision that is an important first step towards true campaign finance reform.In an unusually strong field of contenders, Edwards is by far the least polarizing of the other top tier candidates and will clearly provide Democrats the best chance of defeating the Republicans next November.Vote for John Edwards on Jan. 3.

Good News for Edwards in Iowa!

John Edwards had a good day in Iowa. First of all, he earned the endorsement of Iowa Congressman Bruce Braley who called him "the best democrat to win the White House and lead our country." Braley's endorsement was highly sought after by all candidates and is an indicator of Edward's grassroots support in Iowa.

Then, this afternoon, Iowa State released a new poll with great news for Edwards. Not only has he moved into second place, just six points behind Sen. Clinton, he is in first place in the critical race for "second choice" voters. In Iowa, caucus goers whose first choice does not reach a certain threshold of support have the opportunity to make a "second choice." Those second choice voters can make or break a candidate.

The bottom line is that Sen. Edwards continues to be strong-very strong-in Iowa.

It's Hard to Believe

It's hard to believe that a month from today, Daryl and I, along with Lauren Benedict, Steve Leeds, Chuck and Melanie Byrd and a number of others from Georgia, will be in Iowa for the caucus. At this point in 2003, John Edwards was barely polling at 5% in Iowa. John Kerry wasn't doing too well either, and we know what happened. The polls in Iowa are close, and it's a hard state to poll because of the caucus system and the importance of second choice candidates. From being in Iowa in August, I can tell you that there is no doubt that Iowans love John Edwards. He is the candidate who has invested the most time in the state, and in the end, that will serve him well.

I'll be blogging from the first caucus state, on New Years Day. And on the 3rd, when he wins the caucus, we're going to have one heck of a party!!