Second Choice Voters, County Unit System May Give Edwards Advantage in Iowa

A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. But when second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported
other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was
the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology
InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable
win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today,
the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%

Clinton: 34%

Obama:
25%

Edwards Grabs Lead in Iowa!

In what Matt Towery says could signal an Edwards surprise on January 3rd, a new poll from Insider Advantage, shows that John Edwards has grabbed the lead in Iowa. Though the race remains very close, Edwards also has a significant lead among second choice voters-including significantly leading Hillary Clinton among female second choice voters.

Edward is peaking at the right time. Read more from Tom Baxter and Southern Political Report.

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll.