Clinton Strategists Diving for Cover on Iowa

Today, on Meet the Press, two of Hillary Clinton's most staunch allies, Bob Shrum and James Carville, were obviously on a mission to lower expectations for Clinton's chances in the Iowa caucuses. Both, but particularly Carville, emphasized that, not only in Iowa, but nationally, any of the top three democrats can win the nomination. And, then, Mary Matalin, republican strategist who happens to be married to Carville, chimed in with the opinion that the very best thing that could happen to Hillary Clinton would be to lose the Iowa caucuses.

Why are they doing this? Because the "inevitability argument" that has driven fundraising and poll numbers for Clinton, is about to jump up and bite her if she fails to win in Iowa. And, there is a very good chance that she will not win in Iowa. Buried in the poll numbers that were shared on the show today are two key points: democratic voters in Iowa overwhelmingly want change more than they want experience. Clinton has consistently failed to cast herself as a change agent-because she really isn't. She may be a different gender, but her stand on Iran and her strategies on the campaign trail-including her failure to answer questions and cries of "mudslinging" when her rivals call her to answer on the issues-smack of the very best strategies Karl Rove has to offer. It's not new-it's more of the same. It's not transformational, as Bill Clinton's message was. It is controlled. It is disciplined. It is effective. But change? No, it's not change.

The second indicator in the Washington Post poll-the one that put Obama on top for the first time-is Edwards's strength as a second choice for voters-something that is very important in the caucuses. And, there is great affection for Edwards in Iowa.

Yes, this is anyone's game at the point. As the guests all pointed out, there are four debates in December, and anything can happen. My prediction continues to be that Edwards wins Iowa, and Bill Richardson also finds himself in the top three. We'll see, anything can happen. But these pundits had an agenda today-they know that Clinton may well not come out on top in Iowa, and they want to blunt the impact of that loss.

He Won't Back Down

Let me first say, of course Clinton's poll numbers are moving. She's up on the air in Iowa, as is Obama and Biden. Second, if you click on the Tom Petty YouTube on the left, you will hear the song that the "Fight for One America" Edwards bus played loudly though 31 Iowa counties. That's right, 31 counties in six days, while Obama is planning to scale back appearances at multi-candidate forums. That' right, because it runs counter to his "bottom up" approach to this campaign, he will attend fewer forums. What?

By the way, here's the Washington Post article on the labor forum in Cedar Rapids last Saturday. I was there, and they are right, the place emptied after Edwards spoke, and Obama had a really off night.

Edwards on Top in Iowa

Edwards, Romney lead new KCCI poll, Clinton and Obama have slipped.



This is cross-posted at Georgia Women Vote!