Clinton Strategists Diving for Cover on Iowa

Today, on Meet the Press, two of Hillary Clinton's most staunch allies, Bob Shrum and James Carville, were obviously on a mission to lower expectations for Clinton's chances in the Iowa caucuses. Both, but particularly Carville, emphasized that, not only in Iowa, but nationally, any of the top three democrats can win the nomination. And, then, Mary Matalin, republican strategist who happens to be married to Carville, chimed in with the opinion that the very best thing that could happen to Hillary Clinton would be to lose the Iowa caucuses.

Why are they doing this? Because the "inevitability argument" that has driven fundraising and poll numbers for Clinton, is about to jump up and bite her if she fails to win in Iowa. And, there is a very good chance that she will not win in Iowa. Buried in the poll numbers that were shared on the show today are two key points: democratic voters in Iowa overwhelmingly want change more than they want experience. Clinton has consistently failed to cast herself as a change agent-because she really isn't. She may be a different gender, but her stand on Iran and her strategies on the campaign trail-including her failure to answer questions and cries of "mudslinging" when her rivals call her to answer on the issues-smack of the very best strategies Karl Rove has to offer. It's not new-it's more of the same. It's not transformational, as Bill Clinton's message was. It is controlled. It is disciplined. It is effective. But change? No, it's not change.

The second indicator in the Washington Post poll-the one that put Obama on top for the first time-is Edwards's strength as a second choice for voters-something that is very important in the caucuses. And, there is great affection for Edwards in Iowa.

Yes, this is anyone's game at the point. As the guests all pointed out, there are four debates in December, and anything can happen. My prediction continues to be that Edwards wins Iowa, and Bill Richardson also finds himself in the top three. We'll see, anything can happen. But these pundits had an agenda today-they know that Clinton may well not come out on top in Iowa, and they want to blunt the impact of that loss.