Showing posts with label Iowa Caucus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucus. Show all posts

Monday, December 31, 2007

Second Choice Voters, County Unit System May Give Edwards Advantage in Iowa

A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. But when second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported
other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was
the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology
InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable
win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today,
the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%

Clinton: 34%

Obama:
25%

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Edwards Grabs Lead in Iowa!

In what Matt Towery says could signal an Edwards surprise on January 3rd, a new poll from Insider Advantage, shows that John Edwards has grabbed the lead in Iowa. Though the race remains very close, Edwards also has a significant lead among second choice voters-including significantly leading Hillary Clinton among female second choice voters.

Edward is peaking at the right time. Read more from Tom Baxter and Southern Political Report.

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll.

Friday, December 14, 2007

Guest Post: Frigid Iowa Gets Hot

From Michael Miller regarding his recent trip to Iowa in support of John Edwards. I'm headed there for the caucus, and I'm asking for Cuddle Duds for Christmas!


Dear Friends,

By now you have all heard that Clinton's leads in Iowa and New Hampshire have evaporated and her campaign is deteriorating into mudslinging hysteria. There's word that now that they've thrown dirt at Obama, John Edwards is the next target of this desperate campaign. Yesterday on NPR in Johnston, Iowa after the debate, Clinton argued that she is the most electable Democrat because she's "the only one with nothing hidden in my past." Stay tuned...

I want to share some reflections on the Iowa campaign. As many of you know, I have spent a good deal of time campaigning for John Edwards in Iowa and will be there during the final stretch leading up to the caucuses on January 3rd. On the ground in Iowa there has been an unmistakable momentum growing for the Edwards campaign while the national media has been infatuated with the "glamour" stories of Hillary & Bill and Barrack & Oprah. John Edwards has been persuasively making his case that in order for real change to occur in Washington, DC we need a fighter who will take on the greedy and entrenched corporate interests which have co-opted our government - and that John Edwards has fought that fight, and consistently won that fight, for his entire life.

Doing well in Iowa is about “retail” politics – making direct personal contact with the people – and a highly organized team. During our most recent trip to Iowa, Cindy and I worked with a terrific group of volunteers from Illinois, Indiana, California, North Carolina, New York, Washington, and Georgia. We got to see the campaign operation in full gear and got to know some of the truly gifted and dedicated young people who are working 20 hours a day for victory. Our operation is very well-organized, our team understands the dynamics of the caucus process and has an excellent final stretch and caucus-night strategy.

While we had heard a lot about the brutal mid-west winter, nothing could have fully prepared us for the reality of the bone-chilling sub-freezing temperatures, ice and snow storms and incredible winds. But while it is frigid in Iowa now, the politics is getting very hot. Among our activities during a four-day period in Iowa, we took a harrowing ride in an horrid ice-storm to an Edwards event at Drake University (where, incredibly, more than 150 people turned out!), made 1,180 calls to likely caucus-goers inviting them to various events with Senator Edwards, cheered outside a presidential debate (called "visibility" work) in sub-freezing weather and then attended the debate, dined with Senator Edwards and discussed the campaign’s strategy for the last few weeks of the campaign in Iowa, knocked on 835 doors of likely caucus-goers in Ames (45 miles north of Des Moines) and Des Moines in blisteringly cold and windy conditions and urged them to caucus for Edwards, attended an early morning interview with Edwards on the Early Show and attended a forum of precinct captains and other supporters with Madeleine Stowe (Last of the Mohicans, The General’s Daughter, We Were Soldiers) and Jean Smart (Designing Women, 24, Frasier, I Heart Huckabees, Samantha Who?). And that was only part of our four day schedule!

The final stretch is really going to be something - hold on for a wild ride! And if you're coming to Iowa, bring you’re your thermals!

Michael