A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. But when second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported
other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was
the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology
InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable
win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today,
the reallocated final outcome would be:Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama:
25%
