Second Choice Voters, County Unit System May Give Edwards Advantage in Iowa

A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. But when second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported
other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was
the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology
InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable
win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today,
the reallocated final outcome would be:

Edwards: 41%

Clinton: 34%

Obama:
25%

Edwards Win Straw Poll

At a recent meeting, the Muscogee County Democratic Party took an informal straw poll in the presidential race, and the winner was John Edwards. Why does that matter? According to the AJC, Muscogee County Democrats have an uncanny ability to pick winners. Here's what Frank Myers had to say about his support for Sen. Edwards:

Frank Myers, a Columbus attorney, said he's backing Edwards for a simple reason."Of the top-tier candidates, he has the best chance to win the general election," said Myers, 47. "Who is the Republicans' best candidate? It's Hillary Clinton." Those sentiments — the need to pick a candidate who can defeat the Republican nominee and that Clinton is too polarizing — were common at the social. "Hillary has great credentials," said Ross Marshall, 61, an advertising sales executive with Davis Broadcasting. "[But] she will energize the opposition like no one could." Marshall, too, is supporting Edwards.

Edwards Grabs Lead in Iowa!

In what Matt Towery says could signal an Edwards surprise on January 3rd, a new poll from Insider Advantage, shows that John Edwards has grabbed the lead in Iowa. Though the race remains very close, Edwards also has a significant lead among second choice voters-including significantly leading Hillary Clinton among female second choice voters.

Edward is peaking at the right time. Read more from Tom Baxter and Southern Political Report.

Edwards takes lead in InsiderAdvantage Iowa poll.

Guest Post: Frigid Iowa Gets Hot

From Michael Miller regarding his recent trip to Iowa in support of John Edwards. I'm headed there for the caucus, and I'm asking for Cuddle Duds for Christmas!


Dear Friends,

By now you have all heard that Clinton's leads in Iowa and New Hampshire have evaporated and her campaign is deteriorating into mudslinging hysteria. There's word that now that they've thrown dirt at Obama, John Edwards is the next target of this desperate campaign. Yesterday on NPR in Johnston, Iowa after the debate, Clinton argued that she is the most electable Democrat because she's "the only one with nothing hidden in my past." Stay tuned...

I want to share some reflections on the Iowa campaign. As many of you know, I have spent a good deal of time campaigning for John Edwards in Iowa and will be there during the final stretch leading up to the caucuses on January 3rd. On the ground in Iowa there has been an unmistakable momentum growing for the Edwards campaign while the national media has been infatuated with the "glamour" stories of Hillary & Bill and Barrack & Oprah. John Edwards has been persuasively making his case that in order for real change to occur in Washington, DC we need a fighter who will take on the greedy and entrenched corporate interests which have co-opted our government - and that John Edwards has fought that fight, and consistently won that fight, for his entire life.

Doing well in Iowa is about “retail” politics – making direct personal contact with the people – and a highly organized team. During our most recent trip to Iowa, Cindy and I worked with a terrific group of volunteers from Illinois, Indiana, California, North Carolina, New York, Washington, and Georgia. We got to see the campaign operation in full gear and got to know some of the truly gifted and dedicated young people who are working 20 hours a day for victory. Our operation is very well-organized, our team understands the dynamics of the caucus process and has an excellent final stretch and caucus-night strategy.

While we had heard a lot about the brutal mid-west winter, nothing could have fully prepared us for the reality of the bone-chilling sub-freezing temperatures, ice and snow storms and incredible winds. But while it is frigid in Iowa now, the politics is getting very hot. Among our activities during a four-day period in Iowa, we took a harrowing ride in an horrid ice-storm to an Edwards event at Drake University (where, incredibly, more than 150 people turned out!), made 1,180 calls to likely caucus-goers inviting them to various events with Senator Edwards, cheered outside a presidential debate (called "visibility" work) in sub-freezing weather and then attended the debate, dined with Senator Edwards and discussed the campaign’s strategy for the last few weeks of the campaign in Iowa, knocked on 835 doors of likely caucus-goers in Ames (45 miles north of Des Moines) and Des Moines in blisteringly cold and windy conditions and urged them to caucus for Edwards, attended an early morning interview with Edwards on the Early Show and attended a forum of precinct captains and other supporters with Madeleine Stowe (Last of the Mohicans, The General’s Daughter, We Were Soldiers) and Jean Smart (Designing Women, 24, Frasier, I Heart Huckabees, Samantha Who?). And that was only part of our four day schedule!

The final stretch is really going to be something - hold on for a wild ride! And if you're coming to Iowa, bring you’re your thermals!

Michael

If We Want to Win, the Clear Choice is John Edwards

New polling today again shows that John Edwards is the Democrat who stands the best chance of actually winning the presidency in 2008. Even as Huckabee slipped into the lead in Georgia, John Edwards bests him nationally by 25 points, a bigger margin than either of the other front runners. CNN summarizes one of my key reasons for supporting Edwards:

"Edwards is the only Democrat who beats all four Republicans, and McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats," Holland said. "Some might argue this shows that they are the most electable candidates in their respective parties."

No kidding. Democrats need to be asking a serious question: do we want to win the presidency in 2008, or would we rather be crying in a ballroom like we were in 2004-our hopes pinned on Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan? I don't know about you, but I don't care to repeat that experience. We have three supreme court justices on the line, plus Iraq, Iran, health care and the list goes on. We need choose the candidate who has the best chance of actually WINNING, and that's John Edwards-the candidate Republicans fear the most. Watch this clip:



This is why I have been working for Edwards. It's why I'm packing my suitcase and heading to Iowa for the caucus. This is why-I want to WIN next November.

Edwards: "The Best of What This Country Has to Offer"

SOUTHWEST IOWA NEWSPAPER: EDWARDS “REPRESENTS THE BEST OF WHAT THIS COUNTRY HAS TO OFFER”

Endorsement Praises Edwards for “Championing the cause of the little guy” and Highlights Edwards’ Rural Support

Des Moines, Iowa – Senator John Edwards today received the endorsement of Valley News Today, a daily newspaper in Shenandoah, Iowa. The paper, which covers a rural southwestern Iowa community, does not typically endorse presidential candidates and has not done so in recent presidential primaries. The paper’s endorsement reflects Edwards’ appeal to rural America and his commitment to making sure Iowans in every part of the state know where he stands on the important issues facing our country. Edwards is the only candidate to visit and take questions from Iowans in all 99 counties twice, and has announced the public support of more than 1,000 rural Iowans.“As the only Democratic candidate with rural roots, Edwards knows first hand about the daily trials and tribulations of the working poor,” reads the endorsement. “As a result of his upbringing, he has by far the most specific, most progressive and most far-reaching ideas to improve our nation.”
The endorsement comes as Edwards continues to gain momentum in Iowa. Earlier this week, Edwards received the endorsement of Congressman Bruce Braley, the most senior Iowa Democrat to endorse a candidate. Last month, Edwards became the first candidate to announce steering committees in all 99 counties, reaffirming the growing strength of his statewide organization.

The full text of the Valley News Today endorsement is below:

Edwards has clear vision for America

Valley News Today, December 7, 2007

There are many reasons why we’re supporting John Edwards as the Democratic nominee for President – not the least of which is his proven ability to unite voters from a variety of cultural and socioeconomic backgrounds.Unlike his Democratic challengers, Edwards’ support doesn’t come from a single demographic, but rather from all demographics.Simply put, he represents the best of what this country has to offer.If given the opportunity, we believe the former senator from North Carolina will work tirelessly to fight for the little guy as he has done for the past 30 years.

As the only Democratic candidate with rural roots, Edwards knows first hand about the daily trials and tribulations of the working poor. As a result of his upbringing, he has by far the most specific, most progressive and most far-reaching ideas to improve our nation.Born the son of a blue collar mill worker, Edwards learned about the importance of hard work and perseverance from his parents, who taught their son to roll up his sleeves and fight for the things he believed in.That tenacity helped push him to become the first member of his family to attend college – eventually earning a law degree from the University of North Carolina.

For more than two decades, Edwards dedicated his career to representing the little guy. He earned a name for himself as a lawyer by his willingness to stand up against – and ultimately defeat – the powerful insurance industry and their armies of lawyers.His passionate advocacy for people like the folks who worked in the mill with his father earned him respect and recognition across the country.Twenty years later, he’s still championing the cause of the little guy by being an outspoken advocate against poverty.In the 2004 campaign, Edwards brought the plight of the working poor to the front of our American conscience by speaking out about the “two Americas” – one for people at the top who have everything they need and one for everybody else who struggle to get by.Edwards’ powerful message continues to resonate with voters all across America – particularly in Iowa where he has spent the past four years crisscrossing the state to bring his message to each of our 99 counties.As a result of his time spent here, we believe he has developed a true understanding of what matters most to us.Among other things, he has vowed to create a true universal health care system that covers everyone in America, brings down costs, and creates more choices and security.And if Congress won’t cooperate, he has promised to do everything within his power to take away their own government-provided health care. John Edwards is a family man who, if elected, will be the first president since John F. Kennedy to bring young children with him to the White House.And we think that’s a good thing. Each morning when he rises, he will have his children, Jack and Emma, to remind him how important each decision he makes really is to our future generations.

Edwards isn’t afraid to speak out against the political machine that has corrupted our system for years and has pledged as a candidate to refuse contributions from Washington lobbyists – a personal decision that is an important first step towards true campaign finance reform.In an unusually strong field of contenders, Edwards is by far the least polarizing of the other top tier candidates and will clearly provide Democrats the best chance of defeating the Republicans next November.Vote for John Edwards on Jan. 3.

Good News for Edwards in Iowa!

John Edwards had a good day in Iowa. First of all, he earned the endorsement of Iowa Congressman Bruce Braley who called him "the best democrat to win the White House and lead our country." Braley's endorsement was highly sought after by all candidates and is an indicator of Edward's grassroots support in Iowa.

Then, this afternoon, Iowa State released a new poll with great news for Edwards. Not only has he moved into second place, just six points behind Sen. Clinton, he is in first place in the critical race for "second choice" voters. In Iowa, caucus goers whose first choice does not reach a certain threshold of support have the opportunity to make a "second choice." Those second choice voters can make or break a candidate.

The bottom line is that Sen. Edwards continues to be strong-very strong-in Iowa.

It's Hard to Believe

It's hard to believe that a month from today, Daryl and I, along with Lauren Benedict, Steve Leeds, Chuck and Melanie Byrd and a number of others from Georgia, will be in Iowa for the caucus. At this point in 2003, John Edwards was barely polling at 5% in Iowa. John Kerry wasn't doing too well either, and we know what happened. The polls in Iowa are close, and it's a hard state to poll because of the caucus system and the importance of second choice candidates. From being in Iowa in August, I can tell you that there is no doubt that Iowans love John Edwards. He is the candidate who has invested the most time in the state, and in the end, that will serve him well.

I'll be blogging from the first caucus state, on New Years Day. And on the 3rd, when he wins the caucus, we're going to have one heck of a party!!

Edwards/Obama Best Bet in General

That really is my dream team-an Edwards/Obama ticket. This is one reason why.
A new Zogby poll has some sobering news for democrats. In a general election match-up, Sen. Hillary Clinton trails all five likely republican candidates-Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and McCain-while both Edwards and Obama lead all five. Read more here.

This is not the first poll that has pointed to Clinton's general election problems. Her negatives have always been high. She has had consistent problems with making the "electability" argument. We have three supreme court justices on the line, folks. Don't we need to nominate the candidate who has the best shot at actually defeating the republican nominee? Looks to me as if either Edwards or Obama would stand a better shot than Clinton.

Who's Challenging Clinton? Edwards

See what Andrew Sullivan had to say today. John Edwards will win Iowa. And, see this story for a view from the UK.

Clinton Strategists Diving for Cover on Iowa

Today, on Meet the Press, two of Hillary Clinton's most staunch allies, Bob Shrum and James Carville, were obviously on a mission to lower expectations for Clinton's chances in the Iowa caucuses. Both, but particularly Carville, emphasized that, not only in Iowa, but nationally, any of the top three democrats can win the nomination. And, then, Mary Matalin, republican strategist who happens to be married to Carville, chimed in with the opinion that the very best thing that could happen to Hillary Clinton would be to lose the Iowa caucuses.

Why are they doing this? Because the "inevitability argument" that has driven fundraising and poll numbers for Clinton, is about to jump up and bite her if she fails to win in Iowa. And, there is a very good chance that she will not win in Iowa. Buried in the poll numbers that were shared on the show today are two key points: democratic voters in Iowa overwhelmingly want change more than they want experience. Clinton has consistently failed to cast herself as a change agent-because she really isn't. She may be a different gender, but her stand on Iran and her strategies on the campaign trail-including her failure to answer questions and cries of "mudslinging" when her rivals call her to answer on the issues-smack of the very best strategies Karl Rove has to offer. It's not new-it's more of the same. It's not transformational, as Bill Clinton's message was. It is controlled. It is disciplined. It is effective. But change? No, it's not change.

The second indicator in the Washington Post poll-the one that put Obama on top for the first time-is Edwards's strength as a second choice for voters-something that is very important in the caucuses. And, there is great affection for Edwards in Iowa.

Yes, this is anyone's game at the point. As the guests all pointed out, there are four debates in December, and anything can happen. My prediction continues to be that Edwards wins Iowa, and Bill Richardson also finds himself in the top three. We'll see, anything can happen. But these pundits had an agenda today-they know that Clinton may well not come out on top in Iowa, and they want to blunt the impact of that loss.

A Thanksgiving Message From the Edwards'

This is a new spot cut by the Edwards Campaign for Thanksgiving. Take a look!

Why John Edwards Matters for Georgia

Paging all Iowa caucus goers and voters in early primary states.

Georgia is not an "early state," and it could be that, due to the momentum created in the early caucuses and primaries, the nominee will be a virtual lock before Georgians vote in our February 5th primary. Yet, the result of that nomination process and the result is critical for Georgia and other "red" states. That's why so many Georgia democratic leaders-including women-have stepped forward to support John Edwards. Simply put, we all know that John Edwards at the top of the ticket will help democrats up and down the ballot get elected in 2008, and we know that John Edwards as President will help Georgia elect a democratic governor in 2010. And, if John Edwards is our nominee, then we know that he puts 'red' states and important 'swing states' in play-in part because he actually plans to run there-making it more likely that our next President will be a democrat.

To some democratic candidates, Georgia is nothing more than a great big piggy bank. John Edwards has raised his share of cash here, too, but he remains the only one of the candidates who has been to Georgia to raise money for our democratic house and senate caucuses and for the Democratic Party of Georgia.

So, it's no wonder that key Georgia democratic leaders like Gov. Roy Barnes, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor, Sen. Valencia Seay, Sen. Vincent Fort, Melita Easters and others have stepped up to support John Edwards-not only is he the candidate who has the best chance of actually winning nest November, but he's the candidate who can help turn states like Georgia a nice shade of blue!

Here are a couple photographs that help tell the Edwards story in Georgia.

Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor, Sen. Valencia Seay and Sen. Vincent Fort Endorse Edwards

Georgia Women Democratic Leaders With Elizabeth Edwards

Rove's Playbook for Defeating Hillary Clinton

If you didn't already know why we need to nominate John Edwards, Newsweek has a chilling article about how Hillary Clinton can be defeated by none other than Karl Rove. Read it all here.

Elizabeth Edwards: War in Iraq Not Making AYP

Last night, at a Macon, Georgia fundraiser, Elizabeth Edwards spoke to a group that included Kyle George, a Mercer law student and veteran of the war in Iraq. In response to his question about what Sen. Edwards would do as President to end the war in Iraq and begin bringing out troops home, Elizabeth paused and said , "you know, if we took the language of No Child Left Behind and applied it to this war, there's no way the war in Iraq has made AYP ." (Adequate Yearly Progress) That might've been the best line of the night. It is interesting, isn't it, that we go to great lengths to hold teachers accountable and to measure the progress of students, but despite the billions invested in Iraq, we don't do nearly as much to measure the progress of the war or hold George Bush accountable? It's time for a President who will get us out of the multi-billion dollar quagmire.

Sen. Edwards Needs Your Support Tonight!

Do you believe that presidential elections should be publicly financed? John Edwards does, and yesterday he took the courageous step of opting to accept federal matching funds for this election, and he's the only leading candidate to do this, and tonight, I'm asking you to show your support for that decision by making a contribution to his campaign.



That means, if you contribute to John Edwards for President today, up to $250.00 of that contribution will be matched, so $10 becomes $20 and $250 becomes $500. So, how about it? While Hillary Clinton continues to rake in the money from Washington lobbyists, the only money that's good in the Edwards campaign is yours and mine. Your small change can make a big difference, and you can contribute on this secure web page.

So many of my progressive friends have told me that they support public financing of elections. Well, now is the time to step up the the plate and show that you will support the candidate who agrees with you. If you contribute before midnight on Sunday, it will be counted in what is sure to be a strong third quarter fundraising total for Sen. Edwards.

I have found it interesting in that today, on some "progressive" blogs, the Edwards team has been assailed for this decision. Not a terribly progressive attitude if you ask me. After all, Edwards is opting into a system that was established in the wake of Watergate to help stem the tide of corruption in elections and return control of the process to citizens like you and me. It's time to stop the madness and support the candidate who is, once again, leading-in the only way that really matters. It's one thing to talk about big, bold change and quite another to actually embrace big, bold change-right now, this year, in this election. Isn't that the kind of leadership you are looking for in a president?

It's Worth Noting

John Edwards has stayed competitive in Iowa, in fact leads in many polls, despite the fact that he has not been up on television while Clinton, Obama, Biden and to some extent, Richardson, have.

Is the NYT Shrill, Too?

Writing today for the New York Times, Paul Krugman, says

Senator Clinton delayed a long time before coming out with her own plan — a delay that created a lot of anxiety among health care reformers, and may, as I’ll explain in a minute, be a bad omen for the future. Still, this week she did deliver a plan, and it’s as strong as the Edwards plan — because unless you get deep into the fine print, the Clinton plan basically is the Edwards plan.

Over the last week, the Edwards campaign has been effectively holding Hillary Clinton's feet to the fire on health care. The issue is not the substance of her plan, but, rather, the timing of her plan. The truth is that John Edwards led on this issue in February-just as he has led on virtually every issue. While Hillary Clinton was talking about incremental steps, John Edwards published a comprehensive, workable plan to cover every American. Now, Clinton, seven months later, published a plan-one that is remarkably similar to the Edwards' plan. Any why not? It's an excellent plan. The Clinton campaign appears to be pushing back by focusing, not on any plan, but instead, on Elizabeth Edwards suggesting that she is "attacking" Hillary and is becoming "shrill." (For those of you who don't know, "shrill" and "attacking" are words people toss about in an effort to shut up strong, smart women-especially when they are both right and effective.) So, is Krugman "shrill," too?

It's not a problem that Clinton's plan so closely mirrors what Edwards proposed seven months ago. The Edwards plan is the best plan, and it makes perfect sense for her to emulate it. The question is, why did it take her so long? Krugman has a thought about that as well:

...even if the Democrats take the White House and expand their Congressional majorities, the insurance and drug lobbies will try to bully them into backing down on their campaign promises.
That’s why the long delay before Senator Clinton announced her health care plan made supporters of universal care, myself included, so nervous — a nervousness that is not completely assuaged by the fact that she finally did deliver. It’s good to know that whoever gets the Democratic nomination will run on a very good health care plan. What remains is the question of whether he or she will have the determination to turn that plan into reality.

For the first time in my memory, in John Edwards, we have an opportunity to nominate a Democrat who is both the most electable and the most progressive. John Edwards is not in bed with the lobbyists for the industries that hope to derail universal health care. Hillary Clinton is still taking their money. She says that the money won't impact her resolve to reform health care, but you have to wonder. With Edwards, there is no question about his resolve.

Fineman Handicaps Iowa

Howard Fineman is handicapping Iowa and giving Edwards the edge at the Harkin Steak Fry. Read it all here.

John Edwards: We Didn't Get Health Care; We Got NAFTA

Today, addressing the Laborers Leadership Convention in Chicago, John Edwards pressed Hillary Clinton on her newly unveiled health care plan. Today, Clinton became the third Democrat to unveil a plan for universal health care. Sen. Edwards lead on this this issue by being the first of the candidates to announce a plan and provide the details. Today, Edwards took Clinton to task for continuing to take money from some of the same interests who help derail her 1993 plan. Edwards said:
"The cost of failure 14 years ago isn't anybody's scars or political fortune, it's the millions of Americans who have now gone without health care for more than 14 years and the millions more still crushed by the costs."
Edwards was referring, of course, to Clinton's typical "I have the scars to prove it" retort when challenged about her failed efforts on health care in 1993 and her advocacy for inviting special interests to the table now. To the labor union audience, Edwards pointed out that in 1993, the President (Clinton) strongly supported universal health care, none the less, thanks to the influence of lobbyists and special interests, we didn't get health care, but we did get NAFTA.
Edwards attempted to put bite in his growl today by saying that when he is elected, he will submit legislation that ends health care coverage for the president, all members of congress and all senior political appointees on July 20, 2009, unless we have passed universal health care. I don't imagine he's going to find a whole lot folks in Congress lining up to support that legislation....but, he made his point. What's good enough for the rest of us, is good enough for politicians in Washington.

This is cross-posted at Georgia Women VOTE!